George W. Bush was reelected almost a year ago with more than 62 million votes--the most ever cast for a presidential candidate. Bush won 51 percent of the vote--the first presidential candidate to win an absolute majority of the popular vote since 1988. Bush's agenda for his second term was straightforward: He would lead us toward victory in the war on terror. He would move the federal courts in the direction of constitutionalism and restraint. He would preserve and extend the economic growth, spurred by tax cuts, of the last couple of years of his first term.
Since Inauguration Day, the administration has had its troubles. Iraq, despite the extraordinary January 30 elections, remains unstable and insecure. Elsewhere in the war on terror, we have pursued fruitless negotiations with Iran; we have trumpeted as a success a meaningless, Clintonian deal with North Korea; and we have continued to fail to rebuild our military and our intelligence capabilities so they are commensurate to the tasks we face. At home, the administration devoted six months to a misbegotten effort to reform Social Security.
Oh well. All of this is water over the levee, so to speak. The good news is that Bush is poised to rebound by getting back to basics, and getting back to a core, winning agenda.
In Iraq, the administration has increased troop strength, and the military has been allowed to begin fighting a proper counterinsurgency. The offensive against the terrorists in northwestern and western Iraq seems to be going well, and, as the Washington Post acknowledged in a September 22 headline, "Bit by Bit, Iraq's Army and Police Force Show Signs of Progress." The Post's reporting makes clear that such progress will depend on a continued robust American troop presence, and on continued Iraqi confidence in that presence.
In this regard, the administration's commitment to adding newly trained Iraqi troops to our own, rather than viewing them as immediate replacements, and the president's stifling of foolish Rumsfeldian talk of an American drawdown, has been helpful. As the president reiterated last Thursday, "the only way the terrorists can win is if we lose our nerve and abandon the mission." And, he added, "that's not going to happen on my watch." Meanwhile, the political process in Iraq continues to move ahead toward the October 15 constitutional vote.
With respect to the economic agenda, Social Security reform is now dead. This clears the way for a focus on economic growth, and on tax cuts. The administration will correctly insist that the budget reconciliation bill include an extension of the capital gains and dividend tax cuts. In the face of what will likely be a slowing economy in 2006, and in light of the success of these supply-side tax cuts (4 percent growth over the last two years, and a 15 percent increase in tax revenues last year, the largest ever annual increase in federal revenues), the administration needs to insist on these cuts, and move as quickly as possible to make the other tax cuts permanent.
It might also get serious about spending restraint. Instead of bridling at constructive suggestions from friends on the Hill ranging from Indiana's Mike Pence, leader of the House conservatives, to Arizona's John McCain in the Senate, the president should take the lead in making budget reconciliation an occasion for spending rescissions and reductions. For instance, given the Katrina costs, why not delay for at least a year the introduction of the swollen and unwieldy Medicaid prescription drug benefit passed by Congress in 2003?
As for the courts, the Roberts nomination has been a success, substantively and politically. There will be more of a fight over the O'Connor seat, true, but it will be a winning fight. And there are plenty of outstanding candidates. Michael McConnell is as widely respected a constitutional scholar as Roberts was a litigator, and had bipartisan support when he was elevated to the 10th Circuit in 2002. There are other distinguished appellate judges like Alice Batchelder of the 6th Circuit, Edith Jones of the 5th, and Michael Luttig of the 4th. There are first-rate U.S. District Court judges like Lee Rosenthal in Houston, who would have the advantage of bringing real-world judicial trial experience to the High Court. Or the president could choose to replace Justice O'Connor, formerly of the Arizona court, with another state court judge like the highly regarded Maura Corrigan of the Michigan Supreme Court. There are others.
Ronald Reagan used to say that the right policy is often simple--though not easy to carry out. Efforts to win the war, cut taxes and spending, and appoint constitutionalist judges will of course encounter real-world difficulties and political obstacles. But back to basics is the path to political health and successful governance.
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